Baby, It’s Cold Outside


It will be 46 degrees today in Raleigh.  Tomorrow, it will top out at about 36.  My Global Climate Change™ experts say that computer models based upon that trend show that the temperatures at my house will be below zero by Monday. 

Beautiful

A computer model.

According to this estimate, life itself will cease to exist outside my window in just a week or so, and as the cold overpowers the insulation of my house, and the gas pipes underground become brittle, and wires above ground crack and snap, it will become impossible to stay warm even inside.  I’ll stay blogging as long as I can, but you can’t question the computer models.

Or it could be that in the vast history of the planet, there have been periods of cold, followed by warming trends, and these patterns change all the time, regardless of our presence here. Similar to weather, but on a much grander scale.

Our ability to measure slight shifts in temperature over relatively short periods of time is limited, and our science cannot actually predict much about the future.   It’s also true that we should not panic.

 

 

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9 thoughts on “Baby, It’s Cold Outside

  1. fred.bloggs

    Here, in Australia, the computer models are CONSTANTLY being evaluated as to what the ensemble of models predicted, versus what actually happened. It is explicitly acknowledged that the models are imperfect, and millions of R&D dollars are being spent trying to improve them. Why?

    Well, just go and ask anyone who has a business that can be significantly affected by the weather. They’ll tell you how much they rely on forecasts.

    Some industries are starting to move further South, as the northern portions of the continent are becoming hotter, and less conducive to historical crops, whereas these crops are now more viable in traditionallly-cooler areas than previously.

    On a separate but related note, look at the effort being put in to try and find a “million-year ice core” — since climate seems to have undergone a shift in various high/low cycles at about the 800,000-1million years mark (apparent from evidence from other, independent areas of science):

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-12-12/what-is-the-million-year-ice-core/8102552

    Sadly, this is the last time that I’ll read your blog (which I found via Hogewash). While there’s occasionally interesting content, I just cannot stomach the way you go about skepticism on some issues. I’ve tried to analyse my discomfort, and I think that you are too glib in dissing some of the effort being put into some fields, even though I agree with you that some of the opinions contrary of yours are certainly worth disagreeing with… the problem is that your blog seems to polarise into a right/wrong way of modelling arguments, instead of contemplating engagement, debate and areas of potential concensus. (I acknowledge that you are very, very much not alone — perhaps extremism is a deliberate tactic to gather blog hits — practiced across many different blogging viewpoints?)

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    Reply
      1. Dave Alexander (formerly ukuleledave) Post author

        The strange part for me was the suggestion that I disagree with people to generate an audience. I will seem to be polarizing (pun intended) when compared to people who don’t agree with me, I suppose. It’s not a strategy to get clicks. (Clicks are not bad, by the way.) It’s called disagreeing.

        Liked by 2 people

  2. AJ Fornicarius Hoc

    The “best” climate models (as opposed to weather forecasting models) retain a 95% failure rate, despite the millions spent tweaking them and adjusting the temperature datasets to match them. As soon as you start comparing model results to the actual thermometer readings, there you go, off the rails again. The climate, in its infinite stubbornness, simply refuses to cooperate and warm in any way remotely catastrophic. Or change in any way that can be definitively identified as other than natural variation. No money in admitting that, though, so they adjust the datasets and pretend. The credulous and the motivated eat it up, and the absolutely idiotic end up declaring CO2 to be a pollutant.

    Liked by 1 person

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